Dog Unenjoyment Post Mortem

Friday's great news on the employment front now needs to be looked at in the broad context of the Trump Presidency and future fiscal initiatives.

Every POTUS gets to claim accountability for good economic news (and they eat the bad) whatever arc of the cycle the find themselves in. This Administration, at the urging of a before fringe group of Alt-Right Tea Partiers and faux deficit hawks (my deficit is ok, its your deficit that destructive) elected to push through a strong tax policy revision 9 years into a firm advance.

The rallying cry of the partisans was the speed of the advance, not fast enough. The reality was/is the moderate steady advance (and choppy cycles abroad) was key to the long aggressive easy monetary policy of the other hand clapping, the Fed. Away from the pedestrian spin of Trump carnival barkers like Steve Cortes, the fiscal push is difficult to isolate variable-wise.

Worse, what are the unintended consequences of adding fiscal adjustments onto a stable advancing system? The Fed is, and will be forced to continue, widening the global interest rate differentials. This increases turbulence by design. A moderate economic hic-cup could have had the tax policy card safety net.

The undeniable good news is - contrary to the high decibel hate spewed by the opposition - the innovative and aggressive flexibility of the Central Bank halted, reversed and promulgated an amazing retreat from a financial system black hole. The present tilt of the administration is accelerating the need to reverse those very successful structures.

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