....And he said, "You better get back to Tennessee Jed."
- The Summer added more weight to our old belief that what was "wrong" with the narrative of Fed hikes and "normalization" was the calibration of neutral/normal. Foolish metrics like the Taylor Rule and post 70's history have continued to destroy P/L's .
- Our model has put the neutral FF rate at about 1.10% and the recent prevailing effective has been 1.16% ( slightly North of where we think it should be, and recent data has been soft-ish)
- Labor situation is beyond tight. Case Study - The consequences of legalized Pot. Experienced field workers are being pulled into the Emerald Triangle (in Ca.) in a ramp up to legalization. Hourly rates are floating between $25.00 and $30.00. The Administration's border policy is keeping workers from moving around freely.
- The Fall, with debt supply and widespread material rebuilding, should provide plenty of opportunities to once again short the obligations of the government, a favorite non-grape based pastime.