--The massive Pilot Whale grounding bolstered the correlation to earthquakes.
-- The 220% increase in Northern Ca. rainfall has caused an emergency spillway breach and evacuation below the nation's tallest dam. Prices for wine have been pushed "sticky" in a post-harvest attempt to curb widespread discounting. The problem is another massive harvest and large increases from non-Napa/Sonoma regions. The dam is not in danger of structural failure, but more rain is on the way. The "heads -up" is for Central Valley growing regions (Spring should be under way) where most bulk grape and large volume fruits and vegetables are produced. (The other place being Mexico, the place on the other side of the wall)
--The shift in winter weather from the plains to the coasts connects to the potential Omega block this Summer in grain growing regions. We will be keeping an eye out for rain at Riviera CC as the PGA rolls in. Also, Titans of Maverick's was canned when Red Bull pulled out but record-breaking waves have been reported.
-- You can see where we are going with this: We outlined earlier our belief that the new administration was policy tilted toward price increases. A supply oriented policy mistake(s) is fundamental to gaining price traction in a world awash in everything. A weather market would ignite the process. Corn for Dec is up 25 cents this year and 20 cents over the front month.
We are not crazy about heavy things that hurt when Garts drops them on his foot. We do think financial assets have been force-fed and stuffed like a Hudson Valley duck during the monetary experiment euphemistically called QE. Any incremental shift into the tiny commodity markets for food would bring limit moves. Craft beer chasing millennial traders would experience their first grain Summer.
We're your Pilot Whale.