Monthly Archives: December 2015

Agua

Last year, @thestalwart and @boes_ , working for a different outlet, asked some of us what our favorite trade for the next decade was - I submitted a short note on WATER.

Here's another guy fleshing out how to play it. Embedded in his answer you may see mine.

The last line of the movie, printed on a placard, is “Michael Burry is focusing all of his trading on one commodity: Water.” It sounds very ominous. Can you describe this position to me?
Fundamentally, I started looking at investments in water about 15 years ago. Fresh, clean water cannot be taken for granted. And it is not — water is political, and litigious. Transporting water is impractical for both political and physical reasons, so buying up water rights did not make a lot of sense to me, unless I was pursuing a greater fool theory of investment — which was not my intention. What became clear to me is that food is the way to invest in water. That is, grow food in water-rich areas and transport it for sale in water-poor areas. This is the method for redistributing water that is least contentious, and ultimately it can be profitable, which will ensure that this redistribution is sustainable. A bottle of wine takes over 400 bottles of water to produce — the water embedded in food is what I found interesting.

The El Nino is still of significant magnitude. The Mid-America flooding is something we did not expect to start until Spring. Next up, the PGA hits Southern California - watch the weather at Riviera CC.

Classical Thursday

30 minute atr
240 minute atr
daily atr
daily pivots
weekly pivots
monthly pivots
upside retracements
downside retracements
regression channels
support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
  8:30 am Jobless Claims (Consensus 270 K v Prior 267 K)
  9:45 am Chicago PMI (Consensus 50 v Prior 48.7)
                Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 am IEA Natural Gas Report
11:00 am 3 Month Bill Announcement
                6 Month Bill Announcement
                52 Week Bill Announcement
  1:00 pm Baker-Hughes Rig Count
  2:00 pm SIFMA Recommended Early Close
  4:30 pm Fed Balance Sheet
                Money Supply

Classical Wednesday

30 minute atr
240 minute atr
daily atr
daily pivots
weekly pivots
monthly pivots
upside retracements
downside retracements
regression channels
support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
10:00 am Pending Home Sales Index (Consensus 0.5% v Prior 0.2%)
10:30 am EIA Petroleum Status Report
  1:00 pm 7 Year Note Auction
  3:00 pm Farm Prices

Classical Tuesday

30 minute atr
240 minute atr
daily atr
daily pivots
weekly pivots
monthly pivots
upside retracements
downside retracements
regression channels
support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
  8:30 am International Trade in Goods (Consensus $-60.9 B v Prior $-58.4 B)
  8:55 am Redbook
  9:00 am S&P Case-Shiller HPI (Consensus 0.6% v Prior 0.6%)
10:00 am Consumer Confidence (Consensus 93.5 v Prior 90.4)
                State Street Investor Confidence Index
11:30 am 4 Week Bill Auction
  1:00 pm 5 Year Note Auction

Classical Monday

30 minute atr

240 minute atr

daily atr

daily pivots

weekly pivots

monthly pivots

upside retracements

downside retracements

regression channels

support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
10:30 am Dallas Fed Mfg Survey (Consensus -6.0 v Prior -4.9)
11:00 am 4 Week Bill Announcement
11:30 am 3 Month Bill Auction
                6 Month Bill Auction
  1:00 pm 2 Year Note Auction

 

Classical Thursday

30 minute atr
240 minute atr

daily atr

daily pivots

weekly pivots

monthly pivots

upside retracements

downside retracements

regression channels

support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
  8:30 am Jobless Claims (Consensus 270 K v Prior 271 K)
  9:45 am Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 am EIA Natural Gas Report
11:00 am 3 Month Bill Announcement
                6 Month Bill Announcement
                2 Year Note Announcement
                5 Year Note Announcement
                7 Year Note Announcement
  1:00 pm NYSE Early Close
  2:00 pm SIFMA Rec. Early Close
  4:30 pm Fed Balance Sheet
                Money Supply

Classical Wednesday

30 minute atr
240 minute atr
daily atr
daily pivots
weekly pivots
monthly pivots
upside retracements
downside retracements
regression channels
support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
  7:00 am MBA Mortgage Applications
  8:30 am Durable Goods Orders (Consensus -0.5% v Prior 3.0%)
10:00 am New Home Sales (Consensus 503 K v Prior 495 K)
                Consumer Sentiment (Consensus 92.0 v Prior 91.8)
10:30 am EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:30 am 2 Year FRN Note Auction

Stocking Stuffer

Hooper put a little something under the tree today in Bond Futures. We shorted 155.23 on the weekly pattern. The stop is 2 points and the objective is 149-10. Standard Op. is to cover 2/3 at that point and adjust to new pattern on the remainder. Its a great gift, because we love to sell. The daily pattern turns negative at 152-19 so more selling there for the fun of it. The daily - which, to be clear, is not in a negative configuration so not confirming the weekly (an odd scenario) - has an objective of 148-30. If the downside unfolds, the daily and weekly would be back in alignment.

Did I mention I like to sell?

SP futures have a daily pattern buy level of 2007.57 (Hmm look at today's low) looking for 2043. The contract has been slicing and dicing through the "trap gap" from 1997 and 2007.

Classical Tuesday

30 minute atr
240 minute atr
daily atr
daily pivots
weekly pivots
monthly pivots
upside retracements
downside retracements
regression channels
support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
  8:30 am GDP (Consensus 2.0% v Prior 2.1%)
                Corporate Profits
  8:55 am Redbook

9:00 am FHFA House Price Index (Consensus 0.4% v Prior 0.8%)
10:00 am Existing Home Sales (Consensus 5.32 M v Prior 5.36 M)
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Classical Monday

30 minute atr

240 minute atr

daily atr

daily pivots

weekly pivots

monthly pivots

upside retracements

downside retracements

regression channels

support and resistance
 
On the economic calendar:-
  8:30 am Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Consensus 0.15 v Prior -0.4)
11:00 am 4 Week Bill Announcement
11:30 am 3 Month Bill Auction
                6 Month Bill Auction