We haven't weighed in on the Greece situation in a long time for 2 reasons:
1. Its political and outside our core competency.
2, I'm not sure it matters as much as day trading hype believes.
Greece seems to have reached its Eric Stratton moment. The Dean Wermers at the IMF, European Commission and ECB have already exhausted their 'double secret probation" ploy. Tsipras is left to argue that "although they broke a few rules and took a few liberties with the female party guests, he isn't going to stand back and have them bad mouth the country."
The truth is Greece is not and never was Germany. That they were able to borrow as if they were under the blanket of false hope that was the Maastricht Treaty could not change the reality. All Lagarde's horses and all Junker's men will never put Humpty together again. My only early comment on the "crisis" was and remains, default.
The cognoscenti have pointed to "exit" as if this alternative is the Lehman Moment for Europe. Doubtful. The vast majority of the obligations now reside in various quasi-governmental accounts where bonds go to die. The short term would be difficult and chaotic for locals but survivable. The land mass would remain in the Mediterranean Sea between Italy and Turkey.
All of the bickering has masked the base flaw in the charade. A currency without a country cannot survive. Something more than an idea and good will must stand behind the fiat. The Greek Animal House, slowly spiraling toward 10,000 marbles and a Death Mobile, was doomed since inception. 22 years of college, down the drain.