"In general we look for a new law by the following process. First, you guess. Don't laugh, this is the most important step. Then you compute the consequences. Compare the consequences to experience. If it disagrees with experience, the guess is wrong. In that simple statement is the key to science (and for me, trading) It doesn't matter how beautiful your guess is or how smart you are or what your name is. If it disagrees with experience, it's WRONG. That's all there is."