Monthly Archives: December 2014

Classical Wednesday

30 minute atr
240 minute atr
daily pivots
weekly pivots
upside retracements
downside retracements
regression channels
support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
07:00 MBA Purchase Applications
08:30 Jobless Claims (Consensus 286 K v 280 K)
09:45 Chicago PMI (Consensus 60.8 v Prior 60.8)
          Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Pending Home Sales (Consensus 0.5% v Prior -1.1%)
10:30 EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 3 Month Bill Announcement
          6 Month Bill Announcement
          52 Week Bill Announcement
12:00 EIA Natural Gas Report
14:00 SIFMA Recommended Early Close

Classical Tuesday

30 minute atr

240 minute atr

daily pivots

weekly pivots

upside retracements

downside retracements

regression channels

support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
07:45 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
08:55 Redbook
09:00 Case-Shiller HPI (Consensus 0.6% v Prior 0.3%)
10:00 Consumer Confidence (Consensus 93.0 v Prior 88.7)
          State Street Investor Confidence Index
11:30 4 Week Bill Auction
15:00 Farm Prices

Classical Monday

30 minute atr

240 minute atr

daily pivots

weekly pivots

upside retracements

downside retracements

regression channels

price and support
On the economic calendar:-
10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (Consensus 9.5 v Prior 10.5)
11:00 4 Week Bill Announcement
11:30 3 Month Bill Auction
          6 Month Bill Auction
16:30 Fed Balance Sheet
          Money Supply

Classical Wednesday

30 minute atr

240 minute atr

daily pivots

weekly pivots

upside retracements

downside retracements

regression channels

support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
07:00 MBA Purchase Applications (Actual 0.9% v Prior -3.3%)
08:30 Jobless Claims (Actual 280 K v Prior 289 K)
09:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 3 Month Bill Announcement
          6 Month Bill Announcement
11:30 7 Year Note Auction
12:00 EIA Natural Gas Report
Closings:-
13:00 NYSE
13:15 Globex Energy
14:00 Bond Market

 

Abby Normal

We've heard a lot over the last few years about the "New Normal" and the concept of structurally embedded slower growth. We've viewed the post crisis post credit super cycle adjustment in a different way. To us, the path, though twisty, is just "Back to normal." Far too many have calibrated their expectations to the credit super cycle apex; an exiting period in financial history almost impossible to recreate.

Today's GDP report solidifies the long slog back toward normal. The expansion, heavily criticized, is now of average duration and oomph. The 30 year mean reversion in rates is complete. The MARKET is already adjusting to the reality. As we pointed out 2 weeks ago, 12 month money (1s) and 2 year yields have steadily and stealthily climbed while everyone focused on the long stuff. Long rates, however, are like the Moon not he Sun; they are reflected light.

We are entering the phase when the pundocricy will stretch their narrative to "Its good that the Fed is /going to raise rates." There is still a serious gap to fill on the way back to normal, the old normal, the normal normal, the normal before the credit orgy. The 5 year note yield plus some fudge for inflation should track Real GDP. As of this morning (depending on your fudge factor), that gap is a massive 2.5%. My sense is the Happy Days of bullish curve flattening are ending.

One more thing about normal time...people get hurt.