On Oil

The global equilibrium price for crude oil is about half of its current price. Another day, another completed Hooper pattern to the downside. Oil is the ultimate Economic commodity because it adheres to the Golden Rule: Everything in Economics is true, and its opposite.

Higher (not high) prices are and indicator of activity and a "tax" on consumption. Lower prices are a boost to consumer confidence and an omen of faltering growth. High prices buttressed the move to "energy independence" and solidified the supply for lower prices. The rise of ISIS is financed on the back of $90.00 oil as is the House of Saud. The stronger dollar is reflected in lower prices but Petro-dollar has slipped into the grey market. Note, the words "inflation" and "deflation" aren't part of the conversation.

Long time followers know that outside of the Arabian pipeline getting terrorized (a possibility) we are almost always bearish on oil. A myriad of momo floor traders paraded across TV and Futures Now extolling oil's upside when it wore a third digit. Supply and demand aren't just "good ideas" however, they are the Law. Lower gasoline prices always help the American consumption Juggernaut. Europeans?...not so much, as cheap gas has never been perceived as a birth-rite. In typical "What are you buying?" fashion, Natural Gas has moved up with the chill.

I think the decline should halt and the new pattern will be ripe for reversal. That's just an agnostic trader opinion. If left to the forces of Supply and Demand, the equilibrium price of oil is below $40.00 and the Dakota's boom goes bust.



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