Fed Language

The employment data was a bit soft and foreign CBs continued to flail in easier directions. The Fed, however, has started the PR campaign for changing the language at this and the next FOMC meetings.

The balloon floating is being spearheaded by 2 new names you'll be hearing more of: Mester and Powell. Jerome Powell is a Governor and Loretta Mester is Pres. of the Cleveland Fed (Lebron effect already showing). Both are members of a new 4 person panel on communications continuing the futile work begun by Roger Ferguson over a decade ago. The "Openness Objective" has led to confusion, misinterpretation and loss of efficacy, so of course, they are upping the effort.

We remain (as we outlined a month ago in our Minyanville interview) tilted toward the view that the case for raising rates is absent from market demands. The language change will be the Fed's "toe in the water." The Taper tantrum clearly shook the Committee's confidence on markets and market participants, 16 months later they are sheepishly moving back into the game.

Forward guidance was an tether attached to the market to keep it from running amok. The Fedis close to giving us more rope.

 

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