The recent new highs in the Bond Classic and Ultra contracts came with a host of "this time is different" and war fear mongering explanations. The truth is the Note market was skeptical of these claims. We looked for divergences as the long weekend started. The most glaring warning sign was the dis-interest of the belly as long bonds spiked higher.
This morning, the world is still a complicated orb but the manufacturing news is robust. The contract roll is over. The "owners" look more like "renters". Bonds may garner all the attention but keep your focus on the belly.