Monthly Archives: July 2014

Classical Thursday

 30 minute atr
 daily pivots
 weekly pivots
 upside retracements
1.27% retracements
 downside retracements
 regression channels
price support and retracements
 
On the economic calendar:-
07:30 Challenger Job Cut Report
08:30 Gallup US Payroll to Population
           Jobless Claims (Consensus 305 K v Prior 284 K)
           Employment Cost Index (Consensus 0.5% v Prior 0.3%)
09:45 Chicago PMI (Consensus 63.2 v Prior 62.6)
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Report
11:00 3 Month Bill Announcement
          6 Month Bill Announcement
15:00 Farm Prices
16:30 Fed Balance Sheet
          Money Supply
POMO:-
10:15 - 11:00 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases between $1.00 - $1.25 billion

 

Clasical Wednesday

 30 minute atr
 daily pivots
 weekly pivots
 upside retracements
 downside retracements
 regression channels
price support
On the economic calendar:-
07:00 MBA Purchase Applications
08:15 ADP Employment Report (Consensus 235 K v Prior 281 K)
08:30 GDP (Consensus 3.1% v Prior -2.9%)
10:30 EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:30 @ Year FRN Auction
13:00 7 Year Note Auction
14:00 FOMC Meeting Announcement
POMO:-
None today

Classical Tuesday

 

 30 minute atr
 daily pivots
 weekly pivots
 price extensions
 price retracements
 regression channels
price support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
07:45 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
08:55 Redbook
09:00 S&P Case-Shiller HPI (Consensus 0.4% v Prior 0.2%)
10:00 Consumer Confidence (Consensus 85.5 v Prior 85.2)
          State Street Investor Confidence Index
11:30 4 Week Bill Auction
13:00 5 Year Note Auction
POMO:-
10:15 - 11:00 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases between $0.30 - $0.45 billion

Classical Monday

 30 minute atr
 daily pivots
 weekly pivots
 upside retracements
 downside retracements
 regression channels
price support and resistance levels
On the economic calendar:-
09:45 PMI Services Flash (Consensus 60.0 v Prior 61.2)
10:00 Pending Home Sales Index (Consensus 0.3% v Prior 6.1%)
10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (Consensus 12.0 v Prior 11.4)
11:00 4 Week Bill Announcement
11:30 3 Month Bill Auction
          6 Month Bill Auction
13:00 2 Year Note Auction
POMO:-
10:15 - 11:00 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases between $1.00 - $1.25 billion

Why do it at all?

We received some interesting feedback on our FOMC choices. Sources tell us the "higher ups" on the Committee are skeptical of actions less than 25bps. The panel doesn't believe smaller moves can/will make proper condition changes in the economy.

This begs the question : Then why raise rates at all? We were laying out a possible path to normalization. If the concern of the FOMC is slowing credit and thus economic  activity, then raising rates is a moot point. We believe our method would increase confidence and facilitate credit by signaling the end of ZIRP on a "principles" basis. The source information also means the first move will be even more attenuated.