Negative ECB Deposit Rates

Nothing shows the delinking of global Central bank orientation than the 3 months late but now possible, negative ECB deposit rate. The Fed has been busy firing up the FAFRRRF and signaling raising the term deposit facility rate at the same time.

In Switzerland, where people were rushing to open accounts, the negative rate ploy (we'll charge you to hold your money) was used to alter customer behavior. If unleashed in the Eurozone, other consequences unfold. The first is leaking in now, dollar money rates are under pressure. 12 month Libor cracked .54 a few days ago, LIBID is closer to .44 . 2016 Eurodollar futures are 25 ticks above the employment print.

Also, as Mark Dow of Behavioral Macro has pointed out many times, the currency effect is less important inside the zone. Exports are price inelastic for Italian leathers and custom German ball bearings. The majority of EZ trade is internal...that was the point of the ccy!

The concept of money as a game of international hot potato is catching on. US banks are already overly flush with cash. An influx of Eurodeposit refugees is unwanted and un-needed. "Other" assets (cough cough S&P cough cough) will rise and take on "cash-like" characteristics as money around the world goes through the looking glass. The Chinese have seen this game since the days of Marco Polo and opt for things as stores of value.

Meanwhile the low cost of capital fuels over capacity, production and investment. Unlike the 70s adage of "too much money chasing too few goods" (Peter Schiff's mantra) we have ever growing amounts of each, chasing each other. The Fed built the death Star because it was worried about holding "the Floor". If the ECB goes negative, the floor's going to get more crowded. #ZIRP4Eva

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