Monthly Archives: May 2014

Classical Friday

30 minute atr

daily pivots

weekly pivots

upside retracements

downside retracements

regression channels

price support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
 
08:30 Personal Income (Consensus 0.4% v Prior 0.5%)
          Consumer Spending (Consensus 0.2% v 0.5%)
09:45 Chicago PMI (Consensus 61.0 v Prior 63.0)
09:55 Consumer Sentiment (Consensus 82.5 v Prior 81.8)
15:00 Farm Prices
POMO:-
 
10:15 - 11:00 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases between $0.85 - $1.10 billion
 
Speaking today:-
 
12:30 Loretta Mester
14:00 Jeffrey Lacker
17:00 Charles Plosser

 

The New Neutral

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Pimco is hyping a concept they call the "New Neutral." Its a petty ego fight hangover from the El-Erian days and "The New Normal." But, if you go back to last year at this time, we were arguing that without LSAPs the Fed policy calibration would be in equilibrium...or neutral.

We were, at the time, going from short to long and getting absolutely crushed by the deluge of sellers. June 2013 turned out to be our worst month of the year. Now, people are charging into Bonds, Notes and products like the one above under the New Neutral" banner.

Color me skeptical, but this looks like the polar climax of the taper caper from last year.

Classical Thursday

30 minute atr
daily pivots
weekly pivots
price extensions
downside retracement levels
regression channels
price support levels
On the economic calendar:-
08:30 GDP (Consensus -0.5% v 0.1%)
          Jobless Claims (Consensus 317 K v Prior 326 K)
          Corporate Profits
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Pending Home Sales Index (Consensus 1.0% v Prior 3.4%)
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Report
11:00 EIA Petroleum Status Report
          3 Month Bill Announcement
          6 Month Bill Announcement
13:00 7 Year Note Auction
16:30 Fed Balance Sheet
          Money Supply
POMO:-
10:15 - 11:00 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases between $2.50 - $3.25 billion
Speaking today:_
08:30 Loretta Mester
          Sandra Pianalto

 

Wed

The SP and Naz futures hit upside targets yesterday and generated new patterns today. The roll is still in front of these contracts. On the Treasury side, the complex hit upside targets today. This allows the Sep roll to generate new patterns Thursday in the new contract. The universe self corrects. The new contracts are now where the old one's were. We will be watching the bearish POC on the new patterns closely.

Classical Wednesday


30 minute atr

daily pivots

weekly pivots

upside retracements

downside retracements

price extensions

regression channels

price support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
 
07:00 MBA Purchase Applications
07:45 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
08:55 Redbook
11:30 4 Week Bill Auction
          52 Week Bill Auction
13:00 2 Year FRN Auction
          5 Year Note Auction
POMO:-
 
10:15 - 11:00 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases between $0.85 - $1.10 billion