on the way to the crisis.... boring stability.
Way back, oh 2 or 3 business cycles and a week ago, the promoted meme (started by-with all due respect- Art Cashin) was that the yield on the 10 year Note was falling and thus a harbinger of impending doom. My screen showed a Note that had quivered slightly above and below the same rate since Feb. I wondered if my data feed was down.
Trading now on a second day of unchanged value with a host of straddle and strangle selling in the options pit, perhaps Wed will bring some movement. For now, the dealer has played 125-122 and everyone is back to betting "inside." The economic risk is stability that atrophies to stagnation rather than traction. We still tilt toward traction, for now.
The community of bubble pointer-outers is growing rapidly. We had steered clear of the crowd until yesterday. The cluster of insignificance that is renting your house (room, couch) out hit the market yesterday. Air B and B had a ton of silly money thrown at it that put its valuation at 10B. Now valued at more than Hyatt, Penny Pritzker was seen spitting her martini out at the bar at Gibson's when the news came across the wire. I don't subscribe to the view that this means the Fed should tighten BUT "halting" should replace tapering if this activity is now "risk on."