Here Comes the Stuff

As long as the vast majority of newly created money and credit goes into debt and equity central bankers can worry but carry on. Jim Grant used to always say, "Money chases the inflating asset."

The large short and Put position in Eurodollars and treasuries of several weeks ago has been flopped for long and calls. Yesterday, Eurodollars saw huge call buying as did 10 year notes. Kiev may have sparked some FTQ protection. The cluster of softer data points around the globe and continued weather beat down laid the ground work.

The speculative reaction is slipping outside of the CBs favorite bucket, however. Commodities have spiked with considerable breadth. The energy independence meme has been muffled by strong rallies in natural gas and oil. Refiners are moving to Summer production even as much of the US remains buried and frozen. Wheat, beans, coffee and Hogs all hit upside recalculating prices yesterday. Coffee, Cocoa and Sugar are all garnering CTA attention. It's the breadth of the 10% CRB jump that deserves paying attention.

There was a saying on the floors in Spring and Summer of 1988 - "Buy Beans, Sell Bonds". Anyone and everyone with a trading account got caught up in it.

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