The Treasury Complex has rolled into March with all the usual gaps and distortions. We believe the market is too high in spite of the rolls. Grey Thursday, Black Friday and Small Store Saturday are just the 3 shells in an over-hyped game of "Just buy something dammit." What transpired at various retailers looked more like looting than shopping to us. The disgusting corruption of the nation's best holiday will end up an embarrassing fad soon- we hope. The economic ripples are not meaningful in our view.
Away from cracking a flat screen over a lady's head at Wal-Mart and another new objective hit on Hooper's equity indexes, we think a heartbeat has been heard in credit land. The 10 year is in the trap gap and my own personal favorite "short-to-be" is the 5. (We will wait for Hooper's ok) Then (if/when) I have one word for the Season......SELL !