Monthly Archives: November 2013

The Crisis Hunters

The Wall Street Journal prints 2 incredible Thanksgiving op-eds today. I've had my children read them at Thanksgiving Dinner since they were old enough to read. Take the time to check them out. Yesterday, I took a call from a reporter who was desperate to post a story on impending corporate bond market gloom. I just didn't see it.

The economy is quickening a bit but I'm sure the new year will usher in some buyer's remorse. We still see rates moving up. What happened last Spring was a warning shot not a mistake. Someday, markets will decline,it won't have to be a crisis but the machine will hype it as one.

Take a time out from the silly "Black Friday" sales "reports' and soak up the Thanksgiving Spirit. There will be a crisis in the future. By definition, the vast majority will not see it coming. Until then, too many are missing the period when "things kinda sorta worked out."

Classical Wednesday

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On the economic calendar:

07:00 MBA Purchase Applications

08:30 Durable Goods Orders (Consensus -2.0 v Prior 3.7%)

Jobless Claims (Consensus 330 K v Prior 323 K)

09:45 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Consensus 0.20 v Prior 0.14)

09:45 Chicago PMI (Consensus 60.5 v Prior 65.9)

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

09:55 Consumer Sentiment (Consensus 73.3 v Prior 72.0)

10:00 Leading Indicators (Consensus 0.1% v Prior 0.7%)

10:30 EIA Petroleum Status Report

11:00 3 Month Bill Announcement

6 Month Bill Announcement

12:00 EIA NAtural Gas Report

13:00 7 Year Note Auction

15:00 Farm Prices

POMO:-

None

 

 

 

Classical Tuesday

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On the economic calendar:

07:45 ICS-Goldman Store Sales

08:30 Housing Starts (Consensus 0.903 M v Prior 0.891 M)

08:45 Redbook

09:00 FHFA House Price Index (Consensus 0.4% v Prior 0.3%)
Case-Shiller HPI (Consensus 0.9% v 0.9%)

10:00 Consumer Confidence (Consensus 72.9 v Prior 71.2)

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Consensus 4 v Prior 1)

State Street Investor Confidence Index

11:30 4 Week Bill Auction

13:00 5 Year Note Auction

POMO:-

10:15 - 11:00 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases between $1.25- $1.75 billion

The Fair Land

We are in the Napa Valley after a harrowing excursion across the country and through the Donner Pass. The vast beauty of the US is shockingly impressive. Huge swaths of its citizens go about their lives far from the vacillations  of a 5 minute Spoo chart and opinion dominated "business television".

The story seems stuck in "Tapering" mode. Renewed speculation over a cut in IOER failed to include the introduction of the Death Star rate. I would venture a guess (possibly distorted by a morning tending the garden at The French Laundry gik) that the Nation has already moved on. The word that stuck out in reports I bothered to read was HALT not taper.

We are scouting locations for our West Coast operation. There is still a lot of hurt in the middle of the country and immense wealth up here. The Continental Divide is geographic and monetary. LSAPs make it worse.

Classical Monday

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On the economic calendar:

10:00 Pending Home Sales (Consensus 1.1%v Prior -5.6%)

10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (Consensus 5.0 v Prior 3.6)

11:00 4 Week Bill Announcement

11:30 3 Month Bill Auction

6 Month Bill Auction

13:00 2 Year Note Auction

POMO:-

10:15 - 11:00 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases between $2.75- $3.50 billion