Model Comment

The 5 year and 10 year notes hit their targets on the re-open last nite.

The Bond hit during the session so it has a new trap gap and POC to monitor. In Notes the probability of Higher First The Lower is moderate to high. The standard move is raise Stop point to 1 number up. With the pattern that seems like giving much back imo. Roll adjusted, futures are well into the June 10 levels of the Taper-gate. The market is doing nothing wrong and its been a hard slog back but I see this as close to "fair." Another point and the Negative Convexity starts to bite again, which would get spicy but we're not there yet. We will entertain shorting- for the first time in quite a while- on a break of the new patterns POCs.

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