Gameplan

The path of least resistance for Treasury futures remains down. Several decent rallies have met with offerings that quickly overwhelmed to the downside. The ECB press conference on the 4th Holiday provided a decent global improvement that quickly melted here at home. We still think the Fed's rhetoric was upped in response to market function not direction or rate level.

I would be wary of post-report shorting. We still price equilibrium on the 10 year between 127.07-14. We will be using the print volatility to cover into the Hooper objectives (unless a wild outlier up). The breakdown in market function that we saw in June is improving somewhat. The white pack continues to show vulnerability to China but Draghi has helped normalize and stabilize the money term structure. The hyper-focus on Employment should recede given the long steady trend.

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