If you were long the GBP/USD at 1.6300 you probably (vividly) remember this false breakout:
Yeah, that stunk. So, AUD/USD traders are probably looking at this chart:
The problem is, false breakouts (especially daily or weekly triangles) lead to this:
(positioning may be the culprit here as the market is very long the AUD via recent CFTC reports)
So with the precious metals complex breaking down, you have to ask yourself “could this really happen to the AUD/USD?”
I think the probabilities are high, and increasing daily.
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Disclaimer: I am long the USD against the AUD and a basket of other currencies, and have been for the last couple weeks.