The consensus isn't always wrong, but its always in danger of changing its mind. This site is dedicated to looking out for that change. The yield curve found some support during Friday's session that has helped equity indexes since. The large spec long position in Notes seems to be backed by the believe that 3 (more like 2.5 after Minutes leak) forces will help them out. 1) The short bogey position of managers. 2) The factor flows from Japan (well discussed here months ago when Yen Future was 122 with @groditi ) 3) The Fed.
Our core believe remains "Steeper is better" and Japanese buying will be supportive in a declining bond price environment. After heavy curve orientation liquidation during the roll gap adjustment (culminating after the number)- the question now is "How calm will the owners stay when those relied on forces fail to increase price?" As JGBs show, low coupons equate to less confidence some other sap will lift you out of your paper when the net change is negative.
A falling stock market- rare days of late - is the fastest way to higher note prices still. May is around the corner and Hooper hit a 1577 SP future objective this morning. We are worried, whether in stocks or bonds, people could be about to change their minds.