Currency Tectonics

Tectonics is the science of construction but is usually mentally associated with catastrophic shifts. The world is simultaneously being pulled together in political ways and pushed apart by currencies. The US is caught with Japan, ASEAN trade and rising nationalism with China. Turning rising domestic Chinese frustration against Japan is standard op and little islands are the playground. Great Britain finds itself on the edge of an improving EU. Developed market investment dollars continue to flow to EM countries and stories. Very little looks exciting in Indonesia, India, Turkey or Russia - so Brazil and China get flooded with over investment.

The crisis hyped US finds itself in the "disastrous" position of being the world's biggest military power, energy producer and food generator. The system risk we see brewing is the near universal belief that the US will be a sleepy giant and your money needs to be elsewhere to generate projected needed return. History shows that EM investment ideas are rarely risk adjusted. The Thai Baht devaluation of 1997 rippled far deeper than many expected. Currency skirmishes -war is too strong - are the fracking of economics. There's obvious quick benefit but some curious quakes too.

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