Hard Slog to Nowhere

The initial claims number finally showed some back bone and has really muddied the picture further. The weak data cluster we had been expecting has "clustered" more deeply than we thought. Our favorite forward indicators in ISMs need to stabilize now. The summer forecast from participants was strong and we feel a calming in EZ capital markets would mean alot to keeping it.

The EZ situation has morphed out of debt and into equity and the real economy, a much harder problem to deal with. The NATO summit in Chicago will surely be nasty. The SP is down on the week after a new high so defense is replacing the recent short squeezes. The flash trading crowd remains very bearish. Our indicators suggest a pick up in activity after a hard slog.

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