A little over a year ago, the head of CIC suggested that America needed to "Be more respectful to the people that were lending it money." Negative rates, F-16s and Chen may be bringing our relationship closer to M.A.D.D. The Fed has provided a way for the Chinese to better manage their massive US debt holdings. Secretaries Clinton and Geithner will have their hands full this week as tensions are bubbling up on many fronts. The Syrian situation is reflected in the smiling handshake from the link.
The hoarding of "risk free" collateral and constant promulgation of panic have driven US and German yields into the floor. China represents the ultimate in an exit from quality. "Diversifying" exposure is the culturally polite term for "yours". Moving the Renminbi band out before the visit turns the discussion to speed from action, a weaker hand for the US. The Black Swan event on the radar here could highlight the obvious that Bonds are not T-Bills.
One of my early mentors taught me that the difference between a correction and a bear market is that in a bear market "Everything Goes Wrong." (just as in a bull, everything goes right). This metric has been difficult to apply in the current cycle. We still see M.A.D. keeping the wipe out at bay. The present Super Power tensions and European gyrations show how close to "E.G.W" we are living.