Monthly Archives: March 2012

Germany DAX Trading Levels 30 Mar

Support & Resistance Levels for multiple time-frames on the Cash Index on the annotated charts below. (Click on graphs to enlarge. May need to click a few times to get to full size) Current Hooper Levels for the DAX.

Technical Trading Charts & Levels for S&P, Euro, 10 Year Note & 30 Year Bond are in  Hooper’s subscription portion of contrariancorner.com

Germany DAX (Cash) 8:30 GMT

What the Mayans Knew

Veteran WSJ Capital reporter David Wessels covered the impending US government nightmare on fiscal policies. As it stands right now, on Dec 31 2012:

1) The payroll tax goes back up

2) Income taxes return to pre-Bush levels. Hitting nearly all Americans.

3)Across the board automatic budget cuts centered heavily on Defense.

4) Debt ceiling issues and solvency issues re-emerge.

When put in the perspective of monetary policy, the FOMCs desire to extend language beyond 2013 is far from radical or excessive. In fact, it is a cheap insurance policy for the ineptitude of government. The election backs up any possibility of adult behavior until next year. We can always go with the Mayans.

When the Bush tax cuts were first put in place, the hinterlands of Eurodollar strips carried a slight premium (lower implied yield) embedding a consequence to the adjustment. Now, as time has passed and promises have been made, something completely different is priced. June 2013 is 99.39 (61) and March 2014 is 99.12 (88). Let's accept the levels as the accurate destination...what's the path to get there? Clearly, the Fed is concerned and the political process increases their fears.

We are pushing farther away from our "things will sorta work out" call from last Fall. Hooper is guiding trading while we decrease macro explanations of market gyrations.

S&P Globex Trading Levels 29 Mar

Support & Resistance Levels for multiple time-frames on the Cash Index on the annotated charts below. (Click on graphs to enlarge. May need to click a few times to get to full size)

Technical Trading Charts & Levels for S&P, Euro, 10 Year Note & 30 Year Bond are in  Hooper’s subscription portion of contrariancorner.com

S&P Globex  Jun ’12

30 Year Treasury Trading Levels

Support & Resistance Levels for multiple time-frames on the Cash Index on the annotated charts below. (Click on graphs to enlarge. May need to click a few times to get to full size)

Technical Trading Charts & Levels for S&P, Euro, 10 Year Note & 30 Year Bond are in  Hooper’s subscription portion of contrariancorner.com

30 Yr Treasury Bond Jun ’12

10 Year Treasury Trading Levels

Support & Resistance Levels for multiple time-frames on the Cash Index on the annotated charts below. (Click on graphs to enlarge. May need to click a few times to get to full size)

Technical Trading Charts & Levels for S&P, Euro, 10 Year Note & 30 Year Bond are in  Hooper’s subscription portion of contrariancorner.com

10 Year Treasury Note Jun ’12

Germany DAX Trading Levels 29 Mar

Support & Resistance Levels for multiple time-frames on the Cash Index on the annotated charts below. (Click on graphs to enlarge. May need to click a few times to get to full size) Current Hooper Levels for the DAX.

Technical Trading Charts & Levels for S&P, Euro, 10 Year Note & 30 Year Bond are in  Hooper’s subscription portion of contrariancorner.com

Germany DAX (Cash)

Chance the Gardner

Analyzing the complexities of the global papering over of the credit super cycle  appears to be little more than the Short Attention Span Theater version of Being There. Bring up a Long Term Repo Operation here, or spit out some contempt for Quantitative Easing and you're pretty much good to go. If you can rustle up a metaphor or string a simile you're a regular. Just remember, be vague, smile and for god's sake don't take a follow up! All will be well in the garden.

Thus, Bernanke said X and that means Y and you should buy (sell) -insert commodity, stock, bond here. As Chance said, "I like to watch." The wildly frustrating aspect of it all is that the only thing that matters is the risk. I don't care about opinions. Opinions get you killed. I deal in risks. You say you like the bond? Tell me why you might be wrong. The Fed's going to play with Twist? What's the functionality and operational consequence?

I feel like Louise when she sees Chance on TV: "He had no brains at all. Was stuffed with rice pudding between th' ears. Shortchanged by the Lord, and dumb as a jackass. Look at him now!" Kosinski ok'd the final scene in the film version as Chance tests the depth of water in the fountain and then walks across. He said it was a puzzle, is Chance a god or does he just not know he's supposed to fall in? The game is more complex than this. Its starting to get away from the Central Banks. Someone is going to get wet.

S&P Trading Levels 28 Mar

Support & Resistance Levels for multiple time-frames on the Cash Index on the annotated charts below. (Click on graphs to enlarge. May need to click a few times to get to full size)

Technical Trading Charts & Levels for S&P, Euro, 10 Year Note & 30 Year Bond are in  Hooper’s subscription portion of contrariancorner.com

S&P Globex Jun ’12 2:55 PM

 

S&P Globex Jun ’12 11:15 AM

 

S&P Globex Jun ’12

And So It Goes

I have to wonder why there is so much concern and debate over possible additional - continued - support for the recovery. The March adjustment to rate structures was significant only in relation to its lack of consequence. To the extent real yields became less negative, the Fed has increased public yakking and talked down the growth. That is how a "transparent" central bank massages a message. That's how a Chairman helps "enforce" negative rates.

Yesterday, we discussed the risk of rolling speculative frenzy in commodity classes. The drive by macro analysts will call this inflation. It ain't. Kevin Depew- Emmy winning writer and editor of BBG's Money- noted prices were "falling for things we want and rising for things we need."  Very good. In addition, I use a popular advertisement as an example of the Boomer mindset: The daughter comes into the room and asks her dad for 80 dollars "for jeans". "80 bucks, for jeans?", replies the father. "Ya, everyone is wearing them," says the girl. The dad then logs onto his brokerage account, buys the stock of the jeans company and gives the daughter the money. Implicitly getting the jeans for free as the stock appreciates.

The proliferation of ETFs designed to exploit this herd mindset did not exist in prior cycles. The Street is very good at creating the drug to fuel the next rave. As the VVIX showed last week, certain products are already "breaking bad." Its going to get away from them. And so it goes....tootsie! go!