The Silent Shift

6 Month Treasury Bill Rate  Chart The 6 month Treasury Bill rate has tripled in 2012. At the same time, open interest in the CME Group Eurodollar contract has moved up consistently. Open positions have increased by almost 1.5 million contracts (at 1mln notional per) over the last month of activity. Interbank LIBOR sets declined a bit over the period. The shortage of "risk free" paper and high money demand is shifting. The large long term repo operations by the ECB create structural issues for collateral but in dollar terms, a significant change in metrics has occurred. At first blush, this would seem- and capital markets have moved to show - a constructive underpinning of systemic confidence. Below the surface, Fed jawboning and twisting is continuing with a notable change in yield direction. The kink in the curve is now a function of higher short rates as opposed to falling long term yields.

6 Month Treasury Bill Rate Chart by YCharts

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