Monthly Archives: January 2012

S&P Trading Levels 31 Jan

Support & Resistance Levels for multiple time-frames on the Mar '12 contract on the annotated charts below. (Click on graphs to enlarge. May need to click a few times to get to full size)

Technical Trading Charts & Levels for S&P, Euro, 10 Year Note & 30 Year Bond are in  Hooper's subscription portion of contrariancorner.com

S&P Globex Future 1:10 PM update

 

S&P Globex Future

10 Year Treasury Trading Levels 31 Jan

Support & Resistance Levels for multiple time-frames on the Mar '12 contract on the annotated charts below. (Click on graphs to enlarge. May need to click a few times to get to full size)

Technical Trading Charts & Levels for S&P, Euro, 10 Year Note & 30 Year Bond are in  Hooper's subscription portion of contrariancorner.com

10 Year Treasury Note

30 Year Treasury Trading Levels 31 Jan

Support & Resistance Levels for multiple time-frames on the Mar '12 contract on the annotated charts below. (Click on graphs to enlarge. May need to click a few times to get to full size)

Technical Trading Charts & Levels for S&P, Euro, 10 Year Note & 30 Year Bond are in  Hooper's subscription portion of contrariancorner.com

30 Year Treasury Bond

Euro Globex Trading Levels 31 Jan

Support & Resistance Levels for multiple time-frames on the Mar contract on the annotated charts below. (Click on graphs to enlarge. May need to click a few times to get to full size)

Technical Trading Charts & Levels for S&P, Euro, 10 Year Note & 30 Year Bond are in  Hooper's subscription portion of contrariancorner.com

Euro Globex  Mar '12


Of Human Bond-age

Long time readers know we are not fans of permanent ZIRP and sub-inflation term yields. The dog allows us to dance between the raindrops and Hooper drives the boat. That said, a few points have caught our eye.

The 30 yr future- what we call the Bond Classic - has now completed 4 months of inside price action from the Sept 2011 move. Now , we realize a month is 29 days, 7 hours and 45 minutes longer than 99% of players macro time frames but the contract has been groping toward balance for 120 days.

The 5 year note contract is showing us something completely different. The first corrective dates from Jan 09 to June 2009. A price action of 9 points and a time frame of a whopping 6 months.The 2nd corrective dates from Nov 2010 to March 2011 with 5 months and 6.5 points of movement. The 3rd period of note is from Aug 2011 to Oct 2011 a "rapid" 3 months and roughly 2.5 points.

These movements show the frequency(+) and the amplitude (-) for the 5 year note contract. central Bankers are on their knees hoping they can chain the yield to the floor and smother it into submission. Unfortunately, markets that exhibit these characteristics are indicative of something bigger and nastier. The "something" we are worried about was outlined here, 2 weeks ago (Calling a Top). Put simply, if rates stay here, the bad guys win. The downside is if rates rise they can do it in 2 fashions. One, a modest rise and orderly move to the exit coincides with moderate growth and inflation, rainbows and lolipops. Term structures in areas with better climes and tastier foods exhibit the other, less attractive alternative. Either way, it is important to remember that negative real rates and long durations are good for the borrower not the lender.

Breakout in Disaster Capitalism

The European Union has finally moved to embrace the inevitable and forge a default for Greece. Austerity measures across the rest of the area are beginning to show some bite. In Syria, a civil war is taking hold. In China, Apple stores are being stormed and State manufacturing companies are facing strikes. China Steel the latest example. The US continues to lean on excessive monetary accommodation while these deep structural adjustments occur elsewhere.

Greece now seems poised to become the test case for sovereign CDS event. US and German financing terms have benefited from the rolling chaos elsewhere. Talk of another round of LSAP and pushing real yields negative out to the bond circulates daily. Treasury bonds and ETFs are capital appreciation notes (CANs ?) The ISM data points and the Employment report highlight the domestic situation as Fed promises have capital markets priced for perfection.

We believe a shock is coming and that it is not Greece. The breakout in disaster capitalism is the antithesis of government stability goals. Markets finally, after a long fight, have embraced deflationary outcomes. The long history of disaster capitalism has inflation on its side.

S&P Trading Levels 30 Jan

Support & Resistance Levels for multiple time-frames on the Mar '12 contract on the annotated charts below. (Click on graphs to enlarge. May need to click a few times to get to full size)

Technical Trading Charts & Levels for S&P, Euro, 10 Year Note & 30 Year Bond are in  Hooper's subscription portion of contrariancorner.com

S&P Globex Future

30 Year Treasury Bond Trading Levels 30 Jan

Support & Resistance Levels for multiple time-frames on the Mar '12 contract on the annotated charts below. (Click on graphs to enlarge. May need to click a few times to get to full size)

Technical Trading Charts & Levels for S&P, Euro, 10 Year Note & 30 Year Bond are in  Hooper's subscription portion of contrariancorner.com

30 Year Treasury Bond

10 Year Treasury Trading Levels 30 Jan

Support & Resistance Levels for multiple time-frames on the Mar '12 contract on the annotated charts below. (Click on graphs to enlarge. May need to click a few times to get to full size)

Technical Trading Charts & Levels for S&P, Euro, 10 Year Note & 30 Year Bond are in  Hooper's subscription portion of contrariancorner.com

10 Year Treasury Note