Right as Diverse Pathes

"Right as diverse pathes leden the folk the right wey to Rome." Treatise on the Astroblade Geoffrey Chaucer

"Trans/bastardization: "All roads lead to Rome"

Chaucer  is credited with the earliest version of this oft quoted bon mot. In an essay to his son, who had shown a proclivity for science and math, Chaucer wrote a "How to" guide for using the Astroblade, an inclinometer that could locate the planets and predict the positions of the, moon, planets and stars. Other versions were used for surveying.

Jump forward 5 or 10 centuries and those "diverse paths" once again all point to Rome. A T Bill auction rolled debt at 325 basis points lower than Thanksgiving. 10 year yields, always trying to steal the spotlight, also fell.  Italy does not (nor the US ) include the disclaimer on the issue that interest will be paid by issuance of similar security. And yet, that is the key. Italy, for all its problems is refunding, a process taken for granted here at home. Greece is close to that unpleasant moment when "refunding" becomes "rescheduling." Somewhere between 40 and 70 percent the system will confront this reality.

A part of that reality is the stark difference between 3 and zero (or negative on many days). Every successful 3% 6 month bill is an implicit chip in the permanent zirp. In fact, 0% here is where failed auctions elsewhere go to die.  All roads may lead to Rome over the next few months but those roads start in the US and the pot holes are getting bigger.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *