Shotgun Down the Avalanche

Bob Doll said something in the Weekend WSJ that some of us have said before but hopefully now becomes widely understood. Mr. Doll said this, "The U.S. stock market and the U.S. economy are INCREASINGLY different animals (emphasis mine)." There was no caveat that this was a transitory, or more often opined, Fed conspiracy phenomenon. Stating the obvious and mili-second driven net change of some index is no longer a relevant intellectual starting point for discourse on the economy.

The title of today's note is a great tune by Shawn Colvin. Traders and investors alike know exactly what she meant. Stay in cash and suffer the fiat funk. Short the note market on too much money printing and too much debt and it costs a small fortune to wait and doesn't work anyway. Buy the stock market and realize your a currency trader. Buy PM and sleep lightly knowing you're in bed with apocalyptic nut jobs. It doesn't really matter and any and all of the above tend to work for any given session. But, steadily, unwaveringly and shockingly the economy continues to deteriorate.

Massive amounts of wasted Keynsian wishes and 3rd world country amounts of debt and QE have formed the neutron bomb of policy. The structures are standing but everything and everyone else is dead. We are riding shotgun down the avalanche. Some kicking and screaming some Slim Pickens cheering but the arc and the trend are obvious.

"After countless appeals - we keep spinning our wheels.

On the mountain of new fallen snow. So I let go the catch and we're over the edge -

You have left me nowhere to go." Shawn colvin

One thought on “Shotgun Down the Avalanche

  1. lwmaus

    Your article may be as close to the real truth as I have seen recently. To put it a little differently, the rewards right now don’t seem to justify the higher risks that lurk just around the corner. Part of the risk is simply not knowing how desperate men in power will react when push comes to shove. My bet is that those men will take the path of least resistance and that will mean continued debasement of the USD and perforce upward movements in the euro as strange as that may seem given their dire circumstances. One thing I am certain. Your USD cash position today will purchase less in the near, medium and long term. Wadya gonna do ?


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *