The Good Times

Interest rates are rock bottom low. The stock market is probing the highs and earnings could/should be a record. At arm's length distance, one would expect these to be The Good Times. The metrics away from those two indicators are far from even "decent", however.

Growth in the US does seem to be on better footing than other DM areas. EM growth is well priced into US equities but what if the domestic situation improves? What if the elusive Chinese soft landing is managed? We have never been accused of being optimists but the contrary view now is actually- better.

In a debt liquidation, de-leveraging world, a Black Swan melt down is hard to produce. Even the vaporizing of Greece (and the others to some degree) was - amazingly - a gapers bloc on the monetary highway. We enjoy a good crisis as much as the next trader. As an old mentor used to tell me when the TED was 150, "You can't have a crisis when everyone is looking for one."

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *