The countdown to the Oprahcalypse continues and markets are starting to quake. The singularity of opinion and correlation remains our primary concern. QE's shelf life is slightly longer than Oprah's last show but a world without either is spooking people. The media focus has been squarely on inflationary inputs. The bond market is concentrating on growth prospects.
The persistent and aggressive negative rate structure in the States is the strongest fiscal adjustment policy. A large West Coast money manager estimates debt is being liquidated at nearly 4% of GDP annualized. Our sources indicate that although the Chairman's presser indicated conformity on "extended period," the majority of the meeting was a heated debate on Exit Strategy. We are doubtful that the Fed will leave the show with the tearful adulation of Ms. Winfrey. Perhaps giving everyone in the country a new car would improve the Fed's PR.
Here's what we know: The entity buying 7 out of 10 new bonds issued is "retiring" down to closer to 2. Someone, or something, is going to have to fill the void. As of now, no one has applied or volunteered for the position. For those on an Oprah-jones, at least there's Ellen.