The street has taken a turn recently toward "flatter." Inflation indicators, PM and Fed zirp promises have left strategists conflicted but as the May Refunding approaches, we see a bull flattening bias forming. Radical agnostics when it comes to PD research, we are quietly cheering for a bearish-flatter tilt.
Since last November (Squawk Box guest host appearance), we have advocated a buy down/sell dear don't believe the hype approach to FI. With the 2 year scraping 60 and the 5 at 2%, I don't see much outright value. Thus, playing relative value becomes more popular and direction a subtext.
The effects of carrying strong currency are starting to bite on foreign shores. Liquidation of the massive communal dollar short around the Treasury supply would add to the fun. The Greeks could find themselves "bringing restructuring gifts" to Sec. Geithner et.al. Action in the EU would be a nice divergence from debt ceiling/deficit haggling.
Winter and Spring have seen a significant run in risk assets as domestic FI was pinned down under the Fed's spread compression forces. We get the sense that the sleeping giant - the bond market - wants to regain some of the spot light. All of "this", after all, is about debt. Not equity, currency, corn or dare I say it? silver. Word to the wise, be careful how you wake the giant up.