Quantitative Silver

Besides  a couple 100 Billion, small stuff in today's world, QE dollar bills sit in accounts yielding 25bp on the liability side of the Fed's own balance sheet. Amazingly, when money and credit ran rampant in the streets, gold and silver traded ok but could barely garner a headline outside of Grant's.

Not so today as silver is the most watched metal in the world. When QE1 came around we consulted the smelly suits at a Grant's conference and came away with the feeling that poor nations would buy the metal they could afford and silver fit the bill. Now we have to wonder if the anti-fiat crowd has over cooked the idea.  The money isn't circulating and Europe seems destined to recognize some haircuts. What happens if the PM craze doesn't let everyone neatly out the otherside?

We wouldn't short the stuff and have no dog in the fight. The story revolves around real rates and they remain sharply negative here and in EM lending lands. Some are pulling back steadily even though we are not. Then there's that pile of sequestered Benjamins. Someone with silver thinks they'll be set free.

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