Last night the would-be Republican nominee for President referred to the economy with the same adjectives he used to describe entertainment footnote Rosie O'Donnell. "Big, fat, ugly bubble, " was how Mr. Trump analyzed the state of the US economy, throwing in a few innuendo laden half sentences about Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Nothing unifies the populist movement like Fed bashing.
Always short on details, Mr. Trump then let the armchair conspiracy theorists (having already outed the obese, bedridden, hacker crowd) fill in the gaps by chastising both low interest rates and the consequences of raising them. Surprisingly, neither candidate laid out even a HS sophomore's argument on the optically creepy and monetarily sketchy practices of IOER and QE bond buying regimes.
I think campaigns are good times to press candidates about both Federal Reserve mandates and monetary policy execution. Pat answers protecting Fed independence were all the rage not long ago when Alan Greenspan graced the cover of Time as "World Savior." Today, the long successful career of Dr. (multiple ) Yellen is called into question by the possibility of something yet to occur. Truth be told, we do not know Mrs. Clinton's philosophy of central banking, but her husband took a fortuitous pragmatic approach (cut the deficit and Greenspan cuts rates quid pro quo). The financial tinder of a balanced budget and good intentions on housing would play out terribly later. Trump, however, shows the dangerous populist bluster of CB neanderthals.
The Fed has a long history of pumping up and wrecking economic expansions. The "soft landing" is as rare and mysterious as a Loch Ness sighting. Someday, I'd like to be able to vote for a candidate that actually understands the way the financial system works.
Post Script: Who would be Treasury Secretary in either administration. Considering Jack Lew's ticket was punched for being COO at Citi from 2006-2008 overseeing an historic mudslide into insolvency for an institution founded in 1812 !
RIP Arnold. We used to skip school and go down to Latrobe CC and Rolling Rock brewing like it was Mecca. Everyone knew him as Arnie but if he was in the room it was always Mr. Palmer.
Four long years ago the 10 year yielded a whopping 1.63%. It would be 6 more months before the Taper Tantrum exposed the illiquidity in government bonds. The Federal Reserve elected to stand pat on the funding rate again yesterday. Put in the context of the yield on "dimes", one can wonder how a hike was even a topic.
Debates about QE re-investment, normal, natural and historic must all deal with the reality that -for whatever malenge of reasons - benchmark Treasury yields have gone nowhere since Carly Rae Jepsen topped the charts with Call Me Maybe. Shake ups in other sections of the rate universe have been covered in more respected outlets than here but the mighty 10 year has taken a 4 year dirt nap.
It may be the election, or the disturbing civil unrest (violence Art Cashin and I both predicted btw) but something tells us that - like David in Vanilla Sky - the 10 Year is being told to, "Wake Up."
The Bond Market has now been officially dumbed down into a $7.5B ETF affectionately tagged the TLT. It holds 96.5% of it money in 33 US Government obligations with a duration of 18 years and an average yield of 2.37%. Peeps love it ! Its done exceptionally well since its inception in 2002.
As of late, as in this month, the TLT has begun to wobble. Interestingly, the damage has been in a "follower" mode. The JGB and the Bund lost their luster before the TLT fan base even considered a sell order. Money Funds, on the other hand, have been repulsed. As we have been tracking here, Prime Funds have seen roughly $700B head for the exit over the last year. According to Bloomberg's reporting : Northern Trust is prepping for another $200B out and TD estimates as high as $300B. All of this over the next 30 days as the well documented Oct 14 deadline hits.
In a world of government mandated low volatility, negative yields outside the US, and long duration US funds delivering money market like returns; How much of Ma and Pa's "cash" has been transformed into wonderful financial innovations like TLT ? The fear of "breaking the buck" is promulgated yet, a break now is any price lower than purchased. We believe many Bond Market holders (renters) actually do not know or understand what they've been pushed into. Often, the credit worthiness is called into question for these IOUs. We have scoffed at the critique. We do think a more basic problem could develop. The price of the TLT could fall.
In the history book of great debate face-offs, this one will barely get a mention but the WSJ Weekend Review of Rogoff's new book by Jim Grant is a fun "must see." Rogoff's case against cash was outlined a couple of weeks ago in a WSJ op-ed. For some time, paper money haters have hidden behind the "almost all large denomination bills circulate in grey and illegal markets" premise. The cocktail party dollar amount per capita now hovers at about $4200.00 . The sounds right economics has not stood up to deeper investigations into the truth, however.
On the other side of the argument lies the verbal wizardry of the bow tie wearing Grant. (If he had an English accent he'd be infallible !) Oddly, the pure bred Bear with the strong affinity for yellow metal finds himself defending the cotton fiber fiat he became famous for bashing. Perhaps, Grant is putting Rogoff's idea to the fire because if followed Mr. Grant would lose his arch-villain. Like Mr. Glass and the Security Officer in Unbreakable #GIK. Thus, Grant's entertaining destruction of Rogoff's cashless society is couched on the sinister powers a CB would gain in such a system.
Our view is Rogoff is falling prey to the silliness of the Modern Monetarists. Since the collapse, these advocates have promulgated a simple counter factual -If it's not working, you need to do more. Living in the UpsideDown of negative rates lends no precedent of success. As Grant points out, Homer/Sylla show no prior time period for the phenomenon. Conversely, Grant fears any CB playbook that extends beyond the shackles of the gold standard - or silver, or zinc or Beany Baby. Are we to believe that Central Bank policy makers are conspiring to gain Dark Side powers with no pedigree of efficacy?
Monetary policy tends to work when performed in a fertile fiscal agar. The Negative Yielders have failed on multiple fiscal/macro platforms that could have provided traction. Deeper negative numbers are not the answer because the price of money is not the question. Electronic fiat is a higher Sacrament in the Order of Faith Based Financial Systems. Currency has its place. My suggestion to both men is this: How about we just get rid of the Penny?
In a display of post mortgage fraud brilliance, Wells Fargo dove into the gutter of opening 2 million fake checking accounts. CHECKING ACCOUNTS for chrissake ! 5300 Main St branch bankers are being fired and polishing their resumes for Wall St. Since checking accounts don't really make any money, the fraud involved transferring existing money into the ghost account then charging NSF fees when the original account became overdrawn. Warren Buffet's favorite bank. Out here in Ca, the long lines at Wells are loaded with newly banked Latinos, marketing to a huge demographic. So of course, they trained staff how to rip them off. Mamas don't let your babies grow up to be bankers.
Federal Reserve charity will cover the 185 million dollar fine many times over. Think about that for a second: the Fed pays interest on reserves by electronically marking up the balance of Wells Fargo's account while Wells is ripping off the checking accounts of their customers, only to return the IOER back to the government in the form of a fine ! The Fed needs to consider raising IOER in case more widespread scumbaggery is uncovered.
Our prescription for a steeper curve could have avoided the need for this.
10 year notes fell on Employment day and then reversed and rallied on the return from Labor Day. A new high this morning is waning. The "turnaround tuesday" effect could be sliding to Wed with the Holiday. The rest of the developed country government issues remain trapped in the Upside-down. This Stranger Things phenomenon is the major counter-weight to even marginally higher T rates at home. Amazingly, little benefit is being exploited from this international gift to the US.
Here's a list of the acts that performed live at JCU ... My tenure was Warren Zevon, Talking Heads, Psych Furs and David Johannson.
Music act, Academic year
Lately, my email has been flooded with an array of white papers, news links and general narrative groping discussions of Eurodollar futures. The recent movement of Lie-bor sets started the nostalgic looks at the once "largest pit in the world." Recently, the articles have dug deeper - and in my opinion, more accurately - into the risks hidden in the Gyro-dollar contract.
Bloomberg highlighted the BIS paper on PIMCOs warehouse of contracts at Bill Gross' untidy exit to Janus. (Now a tag line for anyone or anything facing an abrupt change) Gross held 1.2 million contracts according to BIS along with an ego maniac amount of short vol T positions. Well after the fact, smart people are realizing the connection between these positions and the T melt up. For novices, 1000 contracts has a notional 1B value, so Gross' fall at the firm he created is attached to his Tony Montana sized mound of Gyros. A small country's GDP worth to be exact.
These positions are green lit by the Fed's - wrong headed in our opinion - desire for openness that morphed into Forward Guidance. Eurodollars have begun to gyrate sans any official Fed activity. More tremors should be expected and, as always, the positions will be the problem. Government suppressed volatility creates a nasty side effect of markets being driven violently by liquidation. How many more practitioners will be heading to janus soon?
Last week, in the post below, we questioned the reasoning behind 2 disparate views of the Treasury market. Friday, after comments from various CB plutocrats in the mountains, both gentlemen were hung out to dry. The belly dropped out of the curve and the SP and Dow future tagged down pattern objectives.
The media focused on the small tweak in FF futures. As @mark_dow pointed out prior to the Fed yakking, the odds were about 33%. After Yellen (backed up by Fisher, such a misogynistic business) the betting line moved to about 36%. This activated the usual wave of "What do bond guys know that Fed doesn't ?" (excluding our 2 friends mentioned in prior post !) memes. Skipping past the Nov. election meeting, hike pricing jumps in Dec. Historically, a move in Dec would show "measured pace" to be 1 in Dec 2015 and 1 in Dec 2016 - oh how time flies when you're stuck in the upside down.
I've never been a fan of hedging away stub risk or taking clues from the 30 day average contract anyway. Fed Funds Futures are like a sign on a well traveled highway that you glance at while cruising by. The funding rate may go up in Sep, Nov or Dec in our opinion but the annual shifting of the window hardly seems deserving of all the angst.